Mastery Predictive Assessments: Multi-State Predictive Validity Report 2025
Predicting State Summative Success: A 5-State Validity Study of MPAs
State test results shouldn't be a surprise. Schools need reliable data for teachers to act upon before summative assessments, not after. Instructure's latest validity study confirms that Mastery Predictive Assessments provide the roadmap districts need to bridge that gap.
Our research team evaluated the predictive validity of Mastery Predictive Assessments (MPAs) across five states (Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi, and North Carolina) during the 2023–2024 school year. Analyzing data from over 32,000 students in grades 3–8 and high school, the study found strong correlations between students' performance on MPAs and their state summative assessments in math, ELA, science, and social studies.
Why This Matters for District Leaders:
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Eliminate Guesswork: Use validated benchmarks to identify students at risk of falling below proficiency.
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Proven Accuracy: Our findings exceed the 75% industry benchmark for classification accuracy.
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Equitable Data: Results are consistent across diverse student demographics and state-specific standards.
Key Findings at a Glance:
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High Predictive Correlations: Averaging .80 for grades 3–8—meeting the rigorous threshold for educational predictive validity.
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Reliable Classification: MPAs accurately predicted student proficiency 84% of the time in elementary and middle school.
Download the full report to explore detailed data tables, methodology, and actionable insights for your district.
